Initial Unemployment Claims Up 17,000 from Estimates

New unemployment claims are fluctuating, but monthly numbers are expected to show diminishing job loss.

New unemployment claims rose to 551,000 this week, up 17,000 from the previous week, the U.S. Department of Labor reported.

Continuing unemployment claims declined 70,000 from last week, to 6.1 million.

Job losses are diminishing in the private sector, says a payroll report released this week by ADP.

Tomorrow, the government will release its monthly non-farm payroll report. “If September’s payrolls give ground once more, as seems likely, that’ll mark the 21st consecutive month of job destruction for the U.S. — a record string of retreats since the Great Depression. The pain will end soon, but not yet,” writes economics journalist James Picerno on Seeking Alpha.

Research firm Wanted Analytics expects job-loss numbers to be down  50,000 from August. Here’s why:

• There were 32,000 fewer new Unemployment Insurance Claims in the four weeks preceding September 12th than in the four weeks preceding August 12. (Nonfarm Employment is counted on the 12th day of each month).
• Hiring demand has remained almost unchanged on a seasonally adjusted basis compared to last month. There hasn’t been a surge in new online job ads that would lead us to believe a strong hiring trend is underway that could reverse employment losses.
• Job losses, according to the August Employment Situation, have “moderated, [...] although job losses continued in many of the major industry sectors”. In other words, job losses continue, but there has been a slow down in these losses.

Wanted Analytics runs research for The Conference Board, which this week released a report on job demand; that study showed  a decline in online job postings in September.

[Image by Photo Munki via Flickr CC 3.0]

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