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Happy Days for Q4 Hires, NABE Predicts

Economist William Strauss of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago sees positive growth for the economy and hiring.

Economists are starting to support positive economic outlooks, including William Strauss, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

Business spending and hiring are expected to rise over the next six months, said members of the National Association of Business Economists (NABE).

A survey of 78 NABE panelists revealed “new evidence that the U.S. recovery is underway,” said William Strauss, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago who prepared an analysis of the study for the NABE. The study showed that demand for finance, insurance, real estate and the services sectors grew in the third quarter, while transportation, utilities, information and communications declined.

… Job losses have been moderating with an improved outlook for hiring over the next six months. Capital spending was positive for the first time in a year. Improving credit conditions might be part of the explanation, with respondents indicating that credit remains tight but less so than earlier in the year.

Other highlights from the NABE study:

  • For October, 12 percent of panelists are hiring, up from a low of 6 percent in July.
  • Capital spending is on the rise for technology systems, but declining for facilities.
  • 73% believe Gross Domestic Product will expand between 1% and 3% in 2010.

The cautious but positive outlook on hiring is not isolated to this study. In a recent survey by the Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM), 20 percent of HR professionals reported plans to hire in the fourth quarter; 14 percent plan job cuts.

“HR managers are optimistic that the economy is inching towards a recovery but are crafting cautious hiring plans with more aggressive recruitment not expected until 2010,” said Jennifer Schramm, an HR forecaster at SHRM.

(Image by nsub1 via Flickr cc 3.0)

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